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The European Union is preparing countermeasures against the US in response to President Trump's planned tariffs, potentially targeting major American tech firms like Google, Amazon, and X (formerly Twitter). Options include increased regulation, financial transaction taxes, and restrictions on public contracts, with the Digital Markets Act also in consideration. While the EU is ready to retaliate, it remains open to negotiations to resolve trade barriers and enhance cooperation.
Political uncertainty and potential new tariffs are impacting investment plans in the U.S. and Europe, with the U.S. economy growing at about 2% while Europe remains stagnant. The European Commission's defense plan lacks convincing substance, and the German fund for infrastructure may have limited effects on competitiveness. Meanwhile, China's technology sector is thriving, with significant gains in AI and automotive advancements, suggesting a rotation in investment opportunities across geographic areas.
Thierry Breton, the former EU commissioner, resigned amid tensions with Ursula von der Leyen and sought clearance for a non-executive advisory role at Bank of America, promising to adhere to anti-lobbying rules during a two-year cooling-off period. The commission's ethics committee approved his role, emphasizing the importance of confidentiality from his previous position.
A former Credit Suisse executive has been fined CHF 100,000 for failing to report a suspicion of money laundering related to an $8 million payment linked to the Mozambique hidden debt scandal. The Federal Department of Finance issued a criminal order against Lara Warner, who plans to contest the ruling in court.In other news, the National Council will discuss a motion to ban donations from public companies to political parties, affecting UBS, while the EU unveils plans to bolster military spending and support the steel sector amid ongoing trade tensions with the US.
Swiss interest rates are experiencing an unexpected rise, with the 10-year swap rate climbing from 0.27% to 0.85% in three months, despite earlier predictions of further cuts by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Factors influencing this shift include rising rates in Germany and potential fiscal policies that could impact the Swiss economy positively, although a looming U.S. recession poses risks. The SNB is expected to cut rates by 0.25% soon, but the current economic conditions suggest that a significant rise in long-term rates is unlikely.
Europe is intensifying its diplomatic and economic engagement with the Global South, particularly Africa, as the US under Trump retreats from these relationships. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen co-hosted an EU-South Africa summit, highlighting the EU's significant investment and trade ties with South Africa, which serves as a gateway to broader African markets. This strategy aims to counterbalance the influence of Russia and China, who are also vying for partnerships in the region amidst a backdrop of increasing non-alignment among African nations.
Europe is intensifying its diplomatic and economic engagement with the Global South, particularly Africa, as the US under Trump retreats from these relationships. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen co-hosted an EU-South Africa summit, highlighting the EU's significant investment and trade ties with South Africa, which is seen as a gateway to broader African markets. This strategy aims to counterbalance the influence of Russia and China, who are also vying for partnerships in the region amidst a backdrop of increasing non-alignment among African nations on global issues.
A new lobbying scandal in the European Parliament has emerged, with police raids linked to allegations of bribery involving Huawei. Investigators are focusing on 15 current and former MEPs, with several arrests made and offices sealed. Huawei has stated it takes the allegations seriously and is committed to cooperating with the investigation.
The European Commission's "ReArm Europe" plan aims to mobilize 800 billion euros to enhance defense capabilities, encouraging joint procurement of military equipment among EU member states. This initiative has boosted European defense stocks, particularly benefiting Hensoldt AG, Thales SA, and BAE Systems, which are also expanding their cybersecurity divisions. Positive expectations surround Italy's Leonardo, driven by CEO Roberto Cingolani's focus on artificial intelligence and cybersecurity growth.
The euro has surged to a three-month high, breaking through the $1.05 resistance, driven by anticipated increased defense spending from European governments. The European Commission's plans could mobilize nearly 800 billion euros, enhancing the economic outlook and boosting long-term bond yields.Technically, the formation of an "inverted head and shoulders" pattern suggests a shift in investor sentiment favoring the euro, with potential targets at $1.09 and $1.12. However, the trend's sustainability hinges on the actual investment commitments from governments and upcoming US economic data.
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